Impact of Affordable Care Act on United States National Health Expenditure Update from Society of Actuaries Meeting
In June 2013 the Society of Actuaries presented interesting data on likely impact of ACA on the US NHE. Novel Health Strategies team attended this meeting. There are three main areas which are likely to impact US NHE:
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Immediate Reforms (2011 to 2013)
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Expansion of insurance coverage to specific populations (Dependents under
26, PCIP) adds to NHE growth offset by higher rebates for Medicaid drugs,
Medical Loss Ratio provisions reducing the net cost of private health
insurance, and Medicare savings provisions
-
Negligible impact on overall NHE growth
-
Expansion of insurance coverage to specific populations (Dependents under
26, PCIP) adds to NHE growth offset by higher rebates for Medicaid drugs,
Medical Loss Ratio provisions reducing the net cost of private health
insurance, and Medicare savings provisions
-
Major Coverage Expansions: Medicaid, Exchanges (2014)
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Expansions of Medicaid and private health insurance coverage are projected
to increase demand for health care significantly, particularly for prescription
drugs and physician and clinical services
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Anticipated to add 2.1 percentage points to overall health spending growth in
2014 to 7.4 percent
-
Expansions of Medicaid and private health insurance coverage are projected
to increase demand for health care significantly, particularly for prescription
drugs and physician and clinical services
-
After initial coverage expansions (2015 to 2021)
-
Enrollment in Medicaid & Exchanges assumed to be impacted through 2018
because of the transition to new coverage options; these impacts are projected
to be offset by Medicare savings provisions and the excise tax on high-cost
insurance plans
-
Overall, NHE growth is projected to be reduced by 0.1 percentage point, on
average, during this period because of the ACA
-
Enrollment in Medicaid & Exchanges assumed to be impacted through 2018
because of the transition to new coverage options; these impacts are projected
to be offset by Medicare savings provisions and the excise tax on high-cost
insurance plans
Some interesting data projections are shown below:
References:
